James Wilks vs Matt Brown

November 13, 2009

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1007
(-27)
James Wilks
Winner: Matt Brown
KO/TKO
Round 3 • 2:27

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

James Wilks-27
Matt Brown+31
1127
(+31)
Matt Brown

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -24Matt Brown: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Total UFC Fights25
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9971 127
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had James Wilks pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -20Matt Brown: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0011 059
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -27Matt Brown: +54

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round33
Time of Finish2:272:27
Win Type ELO1 0421 252
ELO Change-27+54
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -64Matt Brown: +64

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Significant Strikes Landed1945
Significant Strikes Attempted5375
Total Strikes Landed5867
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9641 219
ELO Change-64+64
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 19 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 35.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -27Matt Brown: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted101
Ground Control Time6:112:45
Ground Strikes Landed019
Ground ELO1 0441 108
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown did not secure a significant ground advantage against James Wilks on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:45 of control time, 19 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -16Matt Brown: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Days Since Last Fight148252
Activity ELO1 0051 121
ELO Change-16+20
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while James Wilks's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -19Matt Brown: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 0041 073
ELO Change-19+25
💡

What Happened

Matt Brown extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. James Wilks is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
James Wilks: -20Matt Brown: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJames WilksMatt Brown
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0011 059
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.