November 13, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Matt Brown's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had James Wilks pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:27 | 2:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 042 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +54 |
Matt Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 964 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 19 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 35.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:11 | 2:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 19 |
| Ground ELO | 1 044 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matt Brown did not secure a significant ground advantage against James Wilks on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:45 of control time, 19 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Matt Brown demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while James Wilks's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Matt Brown extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. James Wilks is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | James Wilks | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

