December 8, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 049 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Nasrat Haqparast's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nasrat Haqparast for the expected result. Had Jamie Mullarkey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:44 | 1:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 134 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +90 |
Nasrat Haqparast earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 968 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Nasrat Haqparast dominated the striking exchanges with 16 vs 8 significant strikes, 55.2% vs 34.8% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Nasrat Haqparast capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 055 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Nasrat Haqparast landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 92 |
| Activity ELO | 1 107 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +54 |
Nasrat Haqparast demonstrated solid activity levels with 92 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nasrat Haqparast capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Mullarkey's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Nasrat Haqparast extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Mullarkey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamie Mullarkey | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

