January 14, 2022
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 027 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Jamie Pickett's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jamie Pickett for the expected result. Had Joseph Holmes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 017 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jamie Pickett earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 853 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Joseph Holmes controlled the striking through superior accuracy (54.8% vs 41.0%). However, since Joseph Holmes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jamie Pickett's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:02 | 3:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 968 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Jamie Pickett edged out Joseph Holmes on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:02 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -21 |
Jamie Pickett demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jamie Pickett capitalized on this activity level, while Joseph Holmes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Jamie Pickett extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joseph Holmes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamie Pickett | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.