March 2, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 006 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:34 | 1:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 062 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -45 |
Jamie Varner earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:34, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 071 | 905 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -95 |
Jamie Varner slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 0 significant strikes, 53.8% vs 0.0% accuracy. Jamie Varner capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:20 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 096 | 862 |
| ELO Change | +138 | -138 |
Jamie Varner dominated Jason Gilliam on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 010 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Jamie Varner demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jamie Varner capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Gilliam's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Jamie Varner started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Gilliam is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.