August 3, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Joe Lauzon's 9-fight experience advantage (13 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Lauzon for the expected result. Had Jamie Varner pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 010 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:44 | 2:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 163 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +45 |
Joe Lauzon earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:44, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jamie Varner was submitted.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 177 | 118 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 199 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Jamie Varner controlled the striking through superior volume (84 vs 55 total strikes), significant strike advantage (82 vs 44), 1 knockdown. However, since Jamie Varner lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Lauzon's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:41 | 2:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 1 311 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Joe Lauzon dominated Jamie Varner on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:11 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 023 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +23 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Varner's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 020 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Joe Lauzon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Varner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 009 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.