December 28, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -39 |
Jamie Varner overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Melvin Guillard.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 034 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 176 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jamie Varner receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 227 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (57 vs 32), superior accuracy (50.9% vs 33.0%). However, since Melvin Guillard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jamie Varner's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:55 | 0:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 149 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -74 |
Jamie Varner controlled Melvin Guillard on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 3:55 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 085 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -31 |
Jamie Varner demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jamie Varner capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 049 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Jamie Varner started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamie Varner | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.