July 5, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 166 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jan Blachowicz's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jan Blachowicz for the expected result. Had Luke Rockhold pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:39 | 1:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 419 | 1 429 |
| ELO Change | +132 | -64 |
Jan Blachowicz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 365 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | +147 | -147 |
Jan Blachowicz controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 17 total strikes, 30 vs 14 significant strikes, 71.4% vs 38.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 3:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 331 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Jan Blachowicz landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 511 |
| Activity ELO | 1 248 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -23 |
Jan Blachowicz demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Rockhold's 511-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 110 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
Jan Blachowicz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Rockhold is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.