April 7, 2017
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Patrick Cummins's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Patrick Cummins for the expected result. Had Jan Blachowicz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 967 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 051 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Patrick Cummins earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 99 | 121 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 021 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Patrick Cummins controlled the striking exchanges with 109 vs 68 total strikes, 73 vs 53 significant strikes. Patrick Cummins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:12 | 7:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 33 |
| Ground ELO | 937 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Patrick Cummins controlled Jan Blachowicz on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 7:39 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 329 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Patrick Cummins demonstrated standard activity with 329 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Patrick Cummins capitalized on this activity level, while Jan Blachowicz's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 976 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Patrick Cummins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jan Blachowicz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 965 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.