February 22, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 121 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Thiago Santos's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Jan Blachowicz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 287 | 1 524 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +46 |
Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 218 | 1 506 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 52 vs 20 total strikes, 52 vs 20 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 37.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 254 | 1 321 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Thiago Santos landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 203 | 1 375 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +43 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Jan Blachowicz's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 080 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +23 |
Thiago Santos extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jan Blachowicz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jan Blachowicz | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.