October 8, 2021
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Randy Brown's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randy Brown for the expected result. Had Jared Gooden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 036 | 1 346 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Randy Brown earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 81 | 115 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 235 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 87 | 117 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 049 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Randy Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 117 vs 87 total strikes, 115 vs 81 significant strikes. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:44 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Randy Brown controlled Jared Gooden on the ground with 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 996 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +21 |
Randy Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Gooden's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 971 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Randy Brown extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Gooden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Gooden | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 966 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

