October 1, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 128 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jared Gordon's 5-fight experience advantage (9 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jared Gordon for the expected result. Had Joe Solecki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 148 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jared Gordon receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 86 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 83 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 110 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Jared Gordon edged the striking exchanges with 51 vs 38 significant strikes. Jared Gordon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:07 | 6:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 243 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Jared Gordon did not secure a significant ground advantage against Joe Solecki on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:07 of control time, 3 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 115 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Jared Gordon demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jared Gordon capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Solecki's 175-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 090 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -22 |
Jared Gordon extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Solecki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.