November 10, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 141 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Jared Gordon's 8-fight experience advantage (14 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jared Gordon for the expected result. Had Mark Madsen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 236 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -45 |
Jared Gordon earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 228 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Jared Gordon controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jared Gordon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 1:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 230 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Jared Gordon landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 153 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Jared Gordon demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jared Gordon capitalized on this activity level, while Mark Madsen's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 100 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Jared Gordon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mark Madsen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Mark Madsen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

