May 17, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 145 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (16 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:37 | 3:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 314 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -40 |
Jared Gordon earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 256 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Jared Gordon controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jared Gordon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:36 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 234 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Jared Gordon landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 330 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jared Gordon demonstrated standard activity with 330 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jared Gordon capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Moises's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Jared Gordon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Moises is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.