December 7, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +84 |
War Machine gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 127 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
War Machine controlled the striking exchanges with 127 vs 78 total strikes, 29 vs 40 significant strikes. War Machine capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:43 | 7:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 32 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 965 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
War Machine edged out Jared Rollins on the ground with 1 takedown, 7:14 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
War Machine demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, War Machine capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Rollins's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
War Machine started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Rollins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Rollins | War Machine |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

