March 13, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jared Rosholt's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jared Rosholt for the expected result. Had Josh Copeland pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:12 | 3:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 149 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -27 |
Jared Rosholt gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 099 | 872 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Jared Rosholt controlled the striking exchanges with 51 vs 19 total strikes, 22 vs 9 significant strikes, 48.9% vs 25.0% accuracy. Jared Rosholt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 186 | 931 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Jared Rosholt controlled Josh Copeland on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:19 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 139 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
Jared Rosholt demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jared Rosholt capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Copeland's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -17 |
Jared Rosholt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Copeland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Josh Copeland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.