February 5, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Roy Nelson's 8-fight experience advantage (16 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roy Nelson for the expected result. Had Jared Rosholt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 200 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Roy Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 121 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 111 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Roy Nelson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 42 vs 36 significant strikes. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 215 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 201 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +56 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Rosholt's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +30 |
Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Rosholt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

