Jared Rosholt vs Roy Nelson

February 5, 2016

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1134
(-32)
Jared Rosholt
Winner: Roy Nelson
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Jared Rosholt-32
Roy Nelson+35
1103
(+35)
Roy Nelson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -42Roy Nelson: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Total UFC Fights816
Experience Gap-88
Experience ELO1 1151 079
ELO Change-42+42
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson's 8-fight experience advantage (16 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roy Nelson for the expected result. Had Jared Rosholt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -27Roy Nelson: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0691 026
ELO Change-27+27
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -40Roy Nelson: +40

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 2001 294
ELO Change-40+40
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What Happened

Roy Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -26Roy Nelson: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Significant Strikes Landed3642
Significant Strikes Attempted120121
Total Strikes Landed3642
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1111 151
ELO Change-26+26
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 42 vs 36 significant strikes. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -33Roy Nelson: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted21
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 2151 045
ELO Change-33+33
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What Happened

The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -28Roy Nelson: +56

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Days Since Last Fight84134
Activity ELO1 2011 163
ELO Change-28+56
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Rosholt's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -27Roy Nelson: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0941 049
ELO Change-27+30
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Rosholt is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Jared Rosholt: -27Roy Nelson: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricJared RosholtRoy Nelson
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0691 019
ELO Change-27+27
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.