August 7, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Jared Rosholt's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jared Rosholt for the expected result. Had Timothy Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 184 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Jared Rosholt earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 119 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Timothy Johnson controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (86 vs 53 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (26 vs 19), superior accuracy (45.6% vs 55.9%). However, since Timothy Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jared Rosholt's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:25 | 8:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 210 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jared Rosholt edged out Timothy Johnson on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:25 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 167 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Jared Rosholt demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jared Rosholt capitalized on this activity level, while Timothy Johnson's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Jared Rosholt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Timothy Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Rosholt | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

