May 21, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -34 |
Jared Vanderaa overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Justin Tafa.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 018 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Jared Vanderaa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 121 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 248 | 147 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 141 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 949 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jared Vanderaa dominated the striking exchanges with 141 vs 74 total strikes, 121 vs 74 significant strikes. Jared Vanderaa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 969 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Jared Vanderaa did not secure a significant ground advantage against Justin Tafa on the ground with 0:24 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -22 |
Jared Vanderaa demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jared Vanderaa capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Tafa's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Jared Vanderaa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.