February 19, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Serghei Spivac's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Serghei Spivac for the expected result. Had Jared Vanderaa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:32 | 4:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +72 |
Serghei Spivac gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 904 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -96 | +96 |
Serghei Spivac dominated the striking exchanges with 107 vs 27 total strikes, 51 vs 13 significant strikes, 70.8% vs 54.2% accuracy. Serghei Spivac capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 8:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 44 |
| Ground ELO | 944 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Serghei Spivac dominated Jared Vanderaa on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 8:29 of control time, 44 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Serghei Spivac demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Serghei Spivac capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Vanderaa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Serghei Spivac extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Vanderaa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jared Vanderaa | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

