October 19, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 950 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 952 | 969 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matt Grice receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 132 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 853 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Matt Grice dominated the striking exchanges with 132 vs 43 total strikes, 44 vs 10 significant strikes, 60.3% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Grice capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:36 | 12:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 31 |
| Ground ELO | 820 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Matt Grice dominated Jason Black on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:44 of control time, 31 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 130 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Matt Grice demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Grice capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Black's 130-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Matt Grice started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Black is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Black | Matt Grice |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.