June 11, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:49 | 2:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +57 |
Thiago Tavares earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:49, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jason Black was submitted.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 929 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Thiago Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 52 vs 16 total strikes, 11 vs 0 significant strikes, 61.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Thiago Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:28 | 5:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 889 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -111 | +111 |
Thiago Tavares dominated Jason Black on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:05 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 68 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +59 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 68 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Black's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Thiago Tavares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Black is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Black | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.