May 28, 2010
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +40 |
Rogerio Nogueira overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jason Brilz.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 018 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 146 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rogerio Nogueira receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 092 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Rogerio Nogueira slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 23 vs 18 significant strikes. Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:57 | 2:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 151 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Rogerio Nogueira did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jason Brilz on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:53 of control time, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 69 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 041 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +29 |
Rogerio Nogueira demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rogerio Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Brilz's 69-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Rogerio Nogueira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Brilz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Brilz | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 018 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.