March 6, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 026 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Kendall Grove's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kendall Grove for the expected result. Had Jason Day pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:32 | 1:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 052 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +107 |
Kendall Grove earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 922 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -158 | +158 |
Kendall Grove controlled the striking exchanges with 40.0% vs 24.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kendall Grove capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 929 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 998 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Kendall Grove demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kendall Grove capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Day's 274-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +22 |
Kendall Grove extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Day is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Day | Kendall Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.