March 10, 1994
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 025 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Royce Gracie's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Royce Gracie for the expected result. Had Jason DeLucia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:07 | 1:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 116 | 1 333 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +49 |
Royce Gracie earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:07, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 080 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 0 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 113 | 1 272 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 | 1 |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 1 492 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +43 |
Royce Gracie demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within 1 day since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Royce Gracie capitalized on this activity level, while Jason DeLucia's 1-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +34 |
Royce Gracie continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jason DeLucia's now at 0.
| Metric | Jason DeLucia | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.