April 26, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 32 |
| Experience Gap | -28 | 28 |
| Experience ELO | 961 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jim Miller's 28-fight experience advantage (32 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Jason Gonzalez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +32 |
Jim Miller earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:12, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 894 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Jason Gonzalez controlled the striking through superior accuracy (40.0% vs 54.5%). However, since Jason Gonzalez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jim Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 873 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Jim Miller controlled Jason Gonzalez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:52 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 588 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 996 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +13 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Gonzalez's 588-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 969 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +15 |
Jim Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Gonzalez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

