December 10, 2015
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Tatsuya Kawajiri's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tatsuya Kawajiri for the expected result. Had Jason Knight pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tatsuya Kawajiri earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 969 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tatsuya Kawajiri dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 44 total strikes. Tatsuya Kawajiri capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 13:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 22 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Tatsuya Kawajiri controlled Jason Knight on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 13:35 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Tatsuya Kawajiri demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tatsuya Kawajiri capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Knight's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Tatsuya Kawajiri extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Knight is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Knight | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.