March 2, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 102 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -38 |
Jason Lambert overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Renato Sobral.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 239 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +98 | -48 |
Jason Lambert gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 262 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +148 | -148 |
Jason Lambert dominated the striking exchanges with 64 vs 23 total strikes, 19 vs 5 significant strikes, 63.3% vs 22.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Jason Lambert capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:11 | 3:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 183 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -89 |
Jason Lambert landed 2 knockdowns followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 167 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Jason Lambert demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jason Lambert capitalized on this activity level, while Renato Sobral's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Jason Lambert started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renato Sobral is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.