January 18, 2008
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +37 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (6 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:37 | 0:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 185 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +110 |
Wilson Gouveia gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 153 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Jason Lambert controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (47 vs 9 total strikes), significant strike advantage (27 vs 5), superior accuracy (48.2% vs 35.7%). However, since Jason Lambert lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Wilson Gouveia's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:50 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 163 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Wilson Gouveia landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 239 |
| Activity ELO | 1 145 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Wilson Gouveia demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Wilson Gouveia capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Lambert's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +31 |
Wilson Gouveia extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Lambert is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Lambert | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.