March 2, 2007
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 084 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Rich Franklin's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rich Franklin for the expected result. Had Jason MacDonald pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 034 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 143 | 1 432 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +35 |
Rich Franklin gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 049 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Rich Franklin controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 27 total strikes, 49 vs 16 significant strikes. Rich Franklin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:57 | 4:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 30 |
| Ground ELO | 1 104 | 1 371 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Rich Franklin controlled Jason MacDonald on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:55 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 107 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +22 |
Rich Franklin demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rich Franklin capitalized on this activity level, while Jason MacDonald's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 041 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Rich Franklin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason MacDonald is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Rich Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.