April 29, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 018 | 892 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Jason MacDonald's 4-fight experience advantage (12 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jason MacDonald for the expected result. Had Ryan Jensen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 140 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -32 |
Jason MacDonald earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 909 | 880 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 0 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 060 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Jason MacDonald edged out Ryan Jensen on the ground with 0:39 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 357 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 191 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Jason MacDonald demonstrated standard activity with 357 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jason MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Jensen's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 019 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Jason MacDonald started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Jensen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.