May 14, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 958 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +42 |
Tom Lawlor overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jason MacDonald.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:50 | 0:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 072 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +119 |
Tom Lawlor secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:50 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 799 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Tom Lawlor controlled the striking exchanges with 45.5% vs 12.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tom Lawlor capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 968 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 241 | 178 |
| Activity ELO | 1 143 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +51 |
Tom Lawlor demonstrated solid activity levels with 178 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tom Lawlor capitalized on this activity level, while Jason MacDonald's 241-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Tom Lawlor started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason MacDonald is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

