December 12, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +40 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:18 | 2:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 175 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +98 |
Wilson Gouveia earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 008 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Wilson Gouveia controlled the striking exchanges with 18 vs 6 significant strikes, 64.3% vs 46.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Wilson Gouveia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 144 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Wilson Gouveia landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 88 |
| Activity ELO | 1 239 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +79 |
Wilson Gouveia demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 88 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Wilson Gouveia capitalized on this activity level, while Jason MacDonald's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 041 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Wilson Gouveia extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason MacDonald is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason MacDonald | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.