November 4, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 945 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 962 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Marco Polo Reyes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 126 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 907 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Marco Polo Reyes controlled the striking exchanges with 50 vs 29 significant strikes. Marco Polo Reyes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 2:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 943 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Marco Polo Reyes edged out Jason Novelli on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:33 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 963 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +30 |
Marco Polo Reyes demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marco Polo Reyes capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Novelli's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 963 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Marco Polo Reyes extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Novelli is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Novelli | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.