November 16, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Joe Lauzon's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Lauzon for the expected result. Had Jason Reinhardt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:14 | 1:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +34 |
Joe Lauzon earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:14, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Joe Lauzon slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 71.4% vs 33.3% accuracy. Joe Lauzon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Joe Lauzon dominated Jason Reinhardt on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:56 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Reinhardt's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Joe Lauzon extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Reinhardt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Reinhardt | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.