October 3, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 077 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Paul Felder receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 028 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Paul Felder controlled the striking exchanges with 72 vs 45 total strikes, 51 vs 29 significant strikes. Paul Felder capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 16 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:19 | 3:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 1 026 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Paul Felder slightly outworked Jason Saggo on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:41 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Paul Felder demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Paul Felder capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Saggo's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Paul Felder started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Saggo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.