December 9, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 020 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Rustam Khabilov's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rustam Khabilov for the expected result. Had Jason Saggo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 132 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Rustam Khabilov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 108 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Rustam Khabilov dominated the striking exchanges with 93 vs 43 total strikes, 42 vs 19 significant strikes, 41.2% vs 26.4% accuracy. Rustam Khabilov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 5:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 081 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Rustam Khabilov dominated Jason Saggo on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:48 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +36 |
Rustam Khabilov demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rustam Khabilov capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Saggo's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
Rustam Khabilov extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Saggo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Saggo | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.