June 15, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Marcus Davis's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcus Davis for the expected result. Had Jason Tan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:15 | 1:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +56 |
Marcus Davis earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 936 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Marcus Davis controlled the striking exchanges with 64.3% vs 46.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcus Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +42 |
Marcus Davis demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Marcus Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Tan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
Marcus Davis extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Tan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Tan | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.