August 16, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 008 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Joe Riggs's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Riggs for the expected result. Had Jason Von Flue pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +59 |
Joe Riggs earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 955 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jason Von Flue controlled the striking through superior accuracy (0.0% vs 25.0%). However, since Jason Von Flue lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Riggs's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 912 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Joe Riggs controlled Jason Von Flue on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:37 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 82 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +48 |
Joe Riggs demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 82 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Joe Riggs capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Von Flue's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Joe Riggs started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Von Flue is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Von Flue | Joe Riggs |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.