March 12, 2021
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:16 | 0:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 996 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +120 |
Matthew Semelsberger secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:16 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 897 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Matthew Semelsberger controlled the striking exchanges with 60.0% vs 100.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 052 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Matthew Semelsberger demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Witt's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Matthew Semelsberger extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Witt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.