June 26, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Takashi Sato's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Takashi Sato for the expected result. Had Jason Witt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:48 | 0:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +82 |
Takashi Sato secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:48 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 867 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -133 | +133 |
Takashi Sato controlled the striking exchanges with 18 vs 2 significant strikes, 85.7% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Takashi Sato capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 942 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Takashi Sato controlled Jason Witt on the ground with 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Takashi Sato demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Takashi Sato capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Witt's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +23 |
Takashi Sato started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Witt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jason Witt | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.