October 2, 2005
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 915 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:05 | 1:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 941 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jonathan Goulet gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 863 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Jonathan Goulet controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 29 total strikes. Jonathan Goulet capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:20 | 0:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 953 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Jonathan Goulet did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jay Hieron on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:39 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 471 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Jonathan Goulet demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Jonathan Goulet capitalized on this activity level, while Jay Hieron's 471-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Jonathan Goulet started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jay Hieron is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jay Hieron | Jonathan Goulet |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.