February 18, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Mario Bautista's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mario Bautista for the expected result. Had Jay Perrin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 964 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Mario Bautista earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 72 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 125 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 962 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Mario Bautista dominated the striking exchanges with 112 vs 57 total strikes, 72 vs 42 significant strikes, 57.6% vs 39.3% accuracy. Mario Bautista capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:45 | 6:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 903 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Mario Bautista dominated Jay Perrin on the ground with 4 vs 2 takedowns, 6:30 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Mario Bautista demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Mario Bautista capitalized on this activity level, while Jay Perrin's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +23 |
Mario Bautista started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jay Perrin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.