January 30, 2004
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Matt Serra's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Jeff Curran pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 962 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Matt Serra earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 118 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 918 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Matt Serra dominated the striking exchanges with 118 vs 19 total strikes, 45 vs 9 significant strikes. Matt Serra capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 13:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 32 |
| Ground ELO | 908 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Matt Serra dominated Jeff Curran on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 13:10 of control time, 32 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 337 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Matt Serra demonstrated standard activity with 337 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Jeff Curran's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Matt Serra started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeff Curran is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeff Curran | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.