November 9, 2012
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 961 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Takeya Mizugaki's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Takeya Mizugaki for the expected result. Had Jeff Hougland pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 954 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Takeya Mizugaki earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 923 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Takeya Mizugaki controlled the striking exchanges with 103 vs 73 total strikes, 63 vs 14 significant strikes. Takeya Mizugaki capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:36 | 11:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 47 |
| Ground ELO | 888 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Takeya Mizugaki dominated Jeff Hougland on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 11:04 of control time, 47 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 180 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Takeya Mizugaki demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Takeya Mizugaki capitalized on this activity level, while Jeff Hougland's 180-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Takeya Mizugaki started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeff Hougland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeff Hougland | Takeya Mizugaki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.