November 18, 2005
Light Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 968 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Sam Hoger's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Hoger for the expected result. Had Jeff Newton pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:05 | 2:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +67 |
Sam Hoger earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jeff Newton was submitted.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 926 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Sam Hoger controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 4 total strikes, 10 vs 2 significant strikes, 47.6% vs 20.0% accuracy. Sam Hoger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 4:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 796 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -204 | +204 |
Sam Hoger dominated Jeff Newton on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:44 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +53 |
Sam Hoger demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Hoger capitalized on this activity level, while Jeff Newton's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Sam Hoger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeff Newton is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeff Newton | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

