November 17, 2023
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:31 | 1:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 078 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +120 | -50 |
Jeka Saragih earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:31, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +116 | -116 |
Lucas Alexander controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 4), superior accuracy (68.8% vs 44.4%). However, since Lucas Alexander lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jeka Saragih's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 986 | 919 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 287 | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jeka Saragih demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jeka Saragih capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Alexander's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -22 |
Jeka Saragih started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Alexander is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeka Saragih | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

