November 1, 2019
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Katlyn Cerminara's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Katlyn Cerminara for the expected result. Had Jennifer Maia pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 025 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Katlyn Cerminara earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 231 | 180 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 007 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Katlyn Cerminara controlled the striking exchanges with 109 vs 74 total strikes, 73 vs 58 significant strikes, 40.6% vs 25.1% accuracy. Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:31 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 995 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Katlyn Cerminara did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jennifer Maia on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +39 |
Katlyn Cerminara demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this activity level, while Jennifer Maia's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Katlyn Cerminara extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jennifer Maia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

