January 14, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Katlyn Cerminara's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Katlyn Cerminara for the expected result. Had Jennifer Maia pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Katlyn Cerminara earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 72 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 171 | 177 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 014 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Katlyn Cerminara controlled the striking exchanges with 81 vs 60 total strikes, 72 vs 52 significant strikes, 40.7% vs 30.4% accuracy. Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 3:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 022 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Katlyn Cerminara edged out Jennifer Maia on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:34 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 1 075 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +12 |
Katlyn Cerminara demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this activity level, while Jennifer Maia's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Katlyn Cerminara extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jennifer Maia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jennifer Maia | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 014 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.