April 21, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 217 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -27 |
Jeremiah Wells overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matthew Semelsberger.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 084 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 277 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jeremiah Wells receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 332 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Jeremiah Wells controlled the striking exchanges with 86 vs 39 total strikes, 36 vs 20 significant strikes. Jeremiah Wells capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 11:12 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 337 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Jeremiah Wells dominated Matthew Semelsberger on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 11:12 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 308 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 121 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jeremiah Wells demonstrated standard activity with 308 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jeremiah Wells capitalized on this activity level, while Matthew Semelsberger's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 108 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -21 |
Jeremiah Wells extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matthew Semelsberger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremiah Wells | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.