February 1, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +30 |
Nate Marquardt overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jeremy Horn.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 166 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +76 |
Nate Marquardt earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:37, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jeremy Horn was submitted.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 090 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Nate Marquardt controlled the striking exchanges with 22 vs 5 significant strikes, 73.3% vs 45.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:23 | 3:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 032 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Nate Marquardt dominated Jeremy Horn on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 3:58 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 617 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 123 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +29 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Jeremy Horn's 617-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 058 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Nate Marquardt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeremy Horn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Horn | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

